Improved Linear Model

This model was trained to match/predict the teams that are selected by the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee to compete for the NCAA National Championship in football. Each of the links for the weeks below as well as the links for pre-bowl related CFP standings (and post-bowl, poll-related comparisons) contain the quantities determined by the power rating system (as described in the book The Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer and Thorn, 1988) that are used to make these predictions (by this model). The OD column represents the average difference between how many points a team’s offense has scored and how many points their defense has surrendered. The SOS column represents that strength of schedule that said team earned against its opponents that year. These quantities are determined using the full margin of victory (MOV) with all games played against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents that year. The two columns ending in Z are these same quantities where the largest allowed MOV is 1 point, essentially capturing only the Win-Loss behavior of that particular season’s games. (Games against non-FBS opponents are included; all of those opponents are grouped together under one generic, team name.)

The multiplying weights used to derive the quantity in the Rating column, in all the files linked to below, are as follows: 0.30912775 * OD, 0.83784781 * SOS, 85.99451009 * ODZ, 49.28798644 * SOSZ and 0.44385664 * # of losses that year (where this last quantity is subtracted from the sum of the four other, aforementioned products).

2019: Weeks #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2018: Weeks #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2017: Weeks #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2016: Weeks #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2015: Weeks #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2014: Weeks #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2013: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2012: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2011: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2010: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2009: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2008: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2007: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls

2006: Pre-Bowls, Post-Bowls